Estimated Winning Times

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All river flows listed are in cubic feet per second (cfs).

Flow Level Labels

The Flow Level Labels are based on all available USGS Historical Observation river flow data from 1990-current, for only July 24th to July 31st of each year.
This time frame accounts for all possible date combinations for the start and finish of the Marathon.
All readings throughout the year compare that day’s flows against July 24-July 31 flow percentiles.

Race Week Flow Label Flow
Percentile		 Red Oak
Flow		 Mio
Flow		 McKinley
Flow		 Curtisville
Flow		 AuSable
Flow
Whoa 99th – 100th 1,010+ 1,250+ 1,320+ 1,430+ 2,060+
Extremely High 95th – 99th 874 – 1,010 1,070 – 1,250 1,210 – 1,320 1,310 – 1,430 1,750 – 2,060
Exceptionally High 90th – 95th 823 – 874 996 – 1,070 1,150 – 1,210 1,220 – 1,310 1,590 – 1,750
Very High 80th – 90th 738 – 823 917 – 996 1,090 – 1,150 1,130 – 1,220 1,320 – 1,590
High 75th – 80th 707 – 738 893 – 917 1,060 – 1,090 1,100 – 1,130 1,280 – 1,320
Above Average 60th – 75th 655 – 707 828 – 893 979 – 1,060 1,010 – 1,100 1,180 – 1,280
Average 40th – 60th 610 – 655 754 – 828 900 – 979 936 – 1,010 1,060 – 1,180
Below Average 25th – 40th 566 – 610 711 – 754 863 – 900 903 – 936 991 – 1,060
Low 20th – 25th 546 – 566 700 – 711 851 – 863 894 – 903 974 – 991
Very Low 10th – 20th 532 – 546 669 – 700 816 – 851 867 – 894 894 – 974
Exceptionally Low 5th – 10th 518 – 532 648 – 669 787 – 816 836 – 867 822 – 894
Extremely Low 1st – 5th 485 – 518 604 – 648 754 – 787 781 – 836 590 – 822
Parched 0th – 1st 0 – 485 0 – 604 0 – 754 0 – 781 0 – 590

This chart will be updated periodically.  Chart Revision 2024

Factors That Influence Marathon Finish Times

  1. Physical Conditioning
  2. Skill & Technique
  3. Team Practice
  4. Canoe Design & Weight
  5. River Knowledge & Experience
  6. Race Strategy
  7. Level of Competition
  8. Water levels
  9. Wind Speed & Direction
  10. Temperature & Humidity
  11. Fog & Cloud Cover
  12. Precipitation & Storms
  13. Release of Dam Water
  14. Support from Bank Runners
  15. Paddles & Special Equipment
  16. Food & Fluids
  17. Good Fortune & Bad Fortune
  18. Race Course Obstacles & Conditions
  19. Phase of the Moon

North American Canoe Paddler Ranking

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