Estimated Winning Times

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All river flows listed are in cubic feet per second (cfs)

Flow Level Labels

  • The Flow Level Labels are based on all available USGS Historical Observation river flow data from 1990-current, for only July 24th to July 31st of each year.
  • This time frame accounts for all possible date combinations for the start and finish of the Marathon.
  • All readings throughout the year compare that day’s flows against July 24-July 31 flow percentiles.
Race Week Flow Label Flow
Percentile		 Red Oak
Flow		 Mio
Flow		 McKinley
Flow		 Curtisville
Flow		 AuSable
Flow
Whoa 99th – 100th 1,010+ 1,250+ 1,320+ 1,430+ 2,060+
Extremely High 95th – 99th 874 – 1,010 1,070 – 1,250 1,210 – 1,320 1,310 – 1,430 1,750 – 2,060
Exceptionally High 90th – 95th 823 – 874 996 – 1,070 1,150 – 1,210 1,220 – 1,310 1,590 – 1,750
Very High 80th – 90th 738 – 823 917 – 996 1,090 – 1,150 1,130 – 1,220 1,320 – 1,590
High 75th – 80th 707 – 738 893 – 917 1,060 – 1,090 1,100 – 1,130 1,280 – 1,320
Above Average 60th – 75th 655 – 707 828 – 893 979 – 1,060 1,010 – 1,100 1,180 – 1,280
Average 40th – 60th 610 – 655 754 – 828 900 – 979 936 – 1,010 1,060 – 1,180
Below Average 25th – 40th 566 – 610 711 – 754 863 – 900 903 – 936 991 – 1,060
Low 20th – 25th 546 – 566 700 – 711 851 – 863 894 – 903 974 – 991
Very Low 10th – 20th 532 – 546 669 – 700 816 – 851 867 – 894 894 – 974
Exceptionally Low 5th – 10th 518 – 532 648 – 669 787 – 816 836 – 867 822 – 894
Extremely Low 1st – 5th 485 – 518 604 – 648 754 – 787 781 – 836 590 – 822
Parched 0th – 1st 0 – 485 0 – 604 0 – 754 0 – 781 0 – 590

This chart will be updated periodically. Chart Revision 2024

Factors That Influence Marathon Finish Times

  1. Physical Conditioning
  2. Skill & Technique
  3. Team Practice
  4. Canoe Design & Weight
  5. River Knowledge & Experience
  6. Race Strategy
  7. Level of Competition
  8. Water levels
  9. Wind Speed & Direction
  10. Temperature & Humidity
  11. Fog & Cloud Cover
  12. Precipitation & Storms
  13. Release of Dam Water
  14. Support from Bank Runners
  15. Paddles & Special Equipment
  16. Food & Fluids
  17. Good Fortune & Bad Fortune
  18. Race Course Obstacles & Conditions
  19. Phase of the Moon

North American Canoe Paddler Ranking

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