Estimated Winning Times
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All river flows listed are in cubic feet per second (cfs)
Flow Level Labels
- The Flow Level Labels are based on all available USGS Historical Observation river flow data from 1990-current, for only July 24th to July 31st of each year.
- This time frame accounts for all possible date combinations for the start and finish of the Marathon.
- All readings throughout the year compare that day’s flows against July 24-July 31 flow percentiles.
Race Week Flow Label | Flow Percentile |
Red Oak Flow |
Mio Flow |
McKinley Flow |
Curtisville Flow |
AuSable Flow |
Whoa | 99th – 100th | 1,010+ | 1,250+ | 1,320+ | 1,430+ | 2,060+ |
Extremely High | 95th – 99th | 874 – 1,010 | 1,070 – 1,250 | 1,210 – 1,320 | 1,310 – 1,430 | 1,750 – 2,060 |
Exceptionally High | 90th – 95th | 823 – 874 | 996 – 1,070 | 1,150 – 1,210 | 1,220 – 1,310 | 1,590 – 1,750 |
Very High | 80th – 90th | 738 – 823 | 917 – 996 | 1,090 – 1,150 | 1,130 – 1,220 | 1,320 – 1,590 |
High | 75th – 80th | 707 – 738 | 893 – 917 | 1,060 – 1,090 | 1,100 – 1,130 | 1,280 – 1,320 |
Above Average | 60th – 75th | 655 – 707 | 828 – 893 | 979 – 1,060 | 1,010 – 1,100 | 1,180 – 1,280 |
Average | 40th – 60th | 610 – 655 | 754 – 828 | 900 – 979 | 936 – 1,010 | 1,060 – 1,180 |
Below Average | 25th – 40th | 566 – 610 | 711 – 754 | 863 – 900 | 903 – 936 | 991 – 1,060 |
Low | 20th – 25th | 546 – 566 | 700 – 711 | 851 – 863 | 894 – 903 | 974 – 991 |
Very Low | 10th – 20th | 532 – 546 | 669 – 700 | 816 – 851 | 867 – 894 | 894 – 974 |
Exceptionally Low | 5th – 10th | 518 – 532 | 648 – 669 | 787 – 816 | 836 – 867 | 822 – 894 |
Extremely Low | 1st – 5th | 485 – 518 | 604 – 648 | 754 – 787 | 781 – 836 | 590 – 822 |
Parched | 0th – 1st | 0 – 485 | 0 – 604 | 0 – 754 | 0 – 781 | 0 – 590 |
This chart will be updated periodically. Chart Revision 2024
Factors That Influence Marathon Finish Times
- Physical Conditioning
- Skill & Technique
- Team Practice
- Canoe Design & Weight
- River Knowledge & Experience
- Race Strategy
- Level of Competition
- Water levels
- Wind Speed & Direction
- Temperature & Humidity
- Fog & Cloud Cover
- Precipitation & Storms
- Release of Dam Water
- Support from Bank Runners
- Paddles & Special Equipment
- Food & Fluids
- Good Fortune & Bad Fortune
- Race Course Obstacles & Conditions
- Phase of the Moon